This sectoral briefing note looks at the future implications of the climate crisis for critical minerals, trade, and climate-resilient development and highlights some of the key implications for developing countries. It reviews existing critical mineral market projections in light of the likely impact of climate change and the energy transition on supply and demand. It also provides an overview of the nature of specific nature of critical minerals and where they are produced. Based on these considerations, it highlights key trade and trade policy implications for developing countries and suggests options for trade policies and international cooperation to support climate-resilient development and value addition in critical minerals.

This briefing note and the series will help contribute to a better understanding of emerging trade and trade policy trends and dynamics and their implications within the various sectors, thereby supporting developing countries in identifying and advancing their climate and trade-related interests and priorities in international discussions.

The briefing notes in the series—covering sectors ranging from agriculture to carbon markets, critical minerals, digital transformation, energy transition, fisheries, heavy industries, shipping, and textiles—will inform a final report to be released in the coming months.

Peter Wooders is Managing Director and Lead, Renewables, Geneva Platform for Resilient Value Chains.

Simon Lobach is Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Vienna / Swiss National Science Foundation.

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Recommended citation: Wooders, P. & Lobach, S. (2025). Critical minerals – Trade, climate, and net zero pathways: Scenarios and implications for developing countries and climate-resilient development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs (TESS).