This sectoral briefing note looks at the future implications of the climate crisis for agriculture, trade, and sustainable development and highlights some of the key implications for developing countries. It reviews existing agricultural market projections in light of the likely impact of climate change on agricultural production, prices, and food insecurity. It also provides an overview of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the sector and their projected evolution over time. Based on these considerations, it highlights key trade and trade policy implications for developing countries and suggests options for international cooperation to align trade policies with climate objectives to ensure a fair transition reflecting broader, long-standing development priorities.

This briefing note and the series will help contribute to a better understanding of emerging trade and trade policy trends and dynamics and their implications within the various sectors, thereby supporting developing countries in identifying and advancing their climate and trade-related interests and priorities in international discussions.

The briefing notes in the series—covering sectors ranging from agriculture to carbon markets, critical minerals, digital trade, energy transition, fisheries, heavy industries, shipping, and textiles—will inform a final report to be released in the coming months.

Christophe Bellmann is Head of Policy Analysis and Strategy, TESS.

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Recommended citation: Bellmann, C. (2025). Agriculture – Trade, climate, and net zero pathways: Scenarios and implications for developing countries and climate-resilient development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs (TESS).