Logistics is often thought of as merely the process of moving things from one place to another.

The appearance of the word on the sides of lorries certainly gives this impression.

In practice, logistics is a complex mix of freight transport, storage, handling, inventory management, and all the IT required to coordinate these activities. It is a function that is often taken for granted, but without which, the global economy would grind to a halt.

The logistics industry is a significant source of greenhouse gases. But it will also play a crucial part in successfully decarbonizing the global economy and adapting society to the impacts of a changing climate—all while being uniquely vulnerable to these impacts itself.

For example, assessments of future transport needs typically exclude the logistical demands of creating the infrastructure for renewables, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Yet none of these is achievable without logistics to coordinate the related flows of materials, equipment, and sequestered carbon.

Yet, despite its importance, logistics is often overlooked in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, national climate plans, and academic research agendas.

In a new paper, published in the International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, I explore the pivotal—and underappreciated—role that logistics plays in a changing climate.

Logistics accounts for around 11–12% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, along with substantial emissions of black carbon (soot), methane, and refrigerant gas emissions, which have a much higher global warming potential than CO2.

As the planet warms and economies develop, demand for refrigeration is rapidly growing, particularly in logistics operations handling perishable products. The “global cold chain logistics market” is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 14% over the next nine years.

Overall, the vast majority of logistics CO2 emissions come from freight transport, with storage and IT making up a comparatively small proportion.

The decarbonization of logistics is not a straightforward task, not least because it is currently almost totally dependent on fossil fuels.

A lot of the assets associated with logistics—everything from vehicles, vessels, and locomotives to warehouses, ports, and terminals—have long lifetimes and so incorporating advances in technology can be a slow process.

In addition, global freight is expected to grow considerably in the coming decades—it is forecast by the International Transport Forum to double between 2019 and 2050.

As well as contributing to climate change, logistics systems are significantly exposed to its impacts. The wide geographical extent of logistical systems, how interconnected they are, and the frequent use of “just-in-time” delivery makes them highly vulnerable to extreme weather events and their geophysical impacts.

Logistics assets are exposed to multiple forms of extreme weather events. Research shows that transport infrastructure, for example, is increasingly affected by heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms, floods, and wildfires. A study published in September this year showed that all countries will face worsening “weather shocks” to their supply chains by 2040.

Fixed assets are also often located in vulnerable areas. In England, for example, many more warehouses are in the highest flood risk category, compared to shops, offices, or factories.

Despite the pressing need to adapt logistical systems and supply chains to climate change, they have been described as “adaptation blind spots.”

For example, the 2022 assessment report on climate impacts and adaptation from the IPCC makes just three references to logistics in more than 3,000 pages.

Providing adaptation measures for transport and logistics infrastructure will itself be highly freight-intensive.

For example, a 2016 study estimated that installing 3,600km of coastal defences for 221 of the world’s major ports to withstand two metres of sea level rise would require, among other materials, 148m cubic metres (m3) of concrete, 125m m3 of quarry stone and 100m m3 of sand.

Logistics also plays a vital role in the delivery of emergency relief to communities hit by extreme weather events. It typically represents 60-80% of expenditure on humanitarian aid.

In 2018, for example, 108 million people needed humanitarian assistance because of floods, storms, drought, and wildfires—a figure the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies says could double by 2050.

Humanitarian logistics has increasingly to support communities affected by longer-term degradation of agricultural systems and rising numbers of refugees displaced by climate change. For example, the UN refugee agency estimates that in 2019 almost 25 million people were displaced by “weather-related hazards” across 140 countries.

Logistics will play a crucial role in facilitating decarbonization across society.

For example, the construction of a renewable energy infrastructure involves the movement of vast amounts of material—much of it over long distances through complex supply chains. In 2018, 26m tonnes of “structural materials” were required globally for onshore and offshore wind turbines—a figure expected to rise 2.3 times by 2030.

As power generation by wind and solar is typically more geographically dispersed than, say, fossil fuel power stations, the logistical demands are correspondingly greater.

However, the additional logistical demands of creating and maintaining this renewable energy infrastructure will be partly offset by the phase-out of fossil fuels. The coal, oil, and gas share of international freight movement is forecast to drop from 29% in 2015 to 8% in 2050.

Logistics will also need to play a key role in efforts to sequester CO2, which is fundamental to the delivery of net-zero commitments that now cover 92% of the global economy.

A wide range of techniques—in various stages of development—exist for carbon dioxide removal, all of which would stretch logistical capabilities if developed at scale.

The challenge will be to create carbon capture and storage supply chains that maximize net CO2 withdrawals partly by minimizing any related emissions from logistics.

For example, on a life-cycle basis, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) will be a highly logistics-intensive process. Operating DACCS at a scale in line with IPCC projections would require the manufacture and installation of thousands of CO2 removal devices with complex upstream supply chains.

The chemicals that DACCS infrastructure uses to capture the CO2 would also constitute major new freight flows. A 2020 paper estimated that the removal of 30bn tonnes of CO2 would need 22bn tonnes of ammonia, 6.9bn tonnes of sodium hydroxide, and 4.4bn tonnes of ethylene oxide.

This captured CO2—in liquid form—then needs to be stored somewhere. Ideally, CO2 capture and storage—or use—would be located in the same place to save on transport. In practice, the differing requirements of sequestration, storage, and use will cause wide spatial separation. The resulting transport will be primarily by pipeline or ship.

For example, a recent report suggested that Europe will need a 15,000–19,000km transport network by 2050 to move CO2 between 100–120 potential CO2 “capture clusters” and about 100 storage sites.

And even the large-scale use of solar geoengineering would have to rely heavily on logistics. For example, a 2018 study of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) tactics concluded that halving the forcing impact that humans have had on the climate within 15 years would take 4,000 SAI deployment flights in year one—increasing by 4,000 every single year.

The study noted that, at present, “no existing aircraft design – even with extensive modifications – can reasonably fulfil this mission.” However, it added that “developing a new, purpose-built high-altitude tanker with substantial payload capabilities would neither be technologically difficult nor prohibitively expensive”.

* This article was first published in Carbon Brief.

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Alan McKinnon is Professor of Logistics at Kuehne Logistics University, Hamburg.

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Synergies by TESS is a blog dedicated to promoting inclusive policy dialogue at the intersection of trade, environment, and sustainable development, drawing on perspectives from a range of experts from around the globe. The editor is Fabrice Lehmann.

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